By Arthur Conan Doyle
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Additional info for Danger! and Other Stories
Consequently, this effect of oil is independent, and does not interact with the effect of a domestic revolution. By contrast, the effect that oil has in lowering the risks to the leader, namely by reducing the risk of domestic punishment for instigating a conflict (especially an unsuccessful one), interacts significantly with the domestic politics of the state. In part, the effect of oil depends on the leader’s ambition and preferences with regard to the existing status quo, which in turn are systematically affected by whether the leader is a revolutionary.
Maoz, 1989, 1996; S. Walt, 1996. 56 40 Petro-Aggression Nonetheless, an appropriate methodology can ensure that even when some measurement error occurs, it does not generate a systematic bias in the analysis. The methodology used for doing so is described in Chapter 4. Does oil income make a state more susceptible to revolution? One might reasonably wonder whether oil causes revolutions, making revolutionary governments more likely to occur in petrostates than in non-petrostates. It is an intriguing question, and I explore it in Chapter 10.
52 A theory of oil, revolution, and conflict 37 the two effects of oil cancel each other out for a non-revolutionary petrostate (X=Y), that is not true in a revolutionary petrostate (Z>Y). The revolutionary petrostate has a conflict propensity equal to 25 percent plus some quantity (Z-Y), the exact magnitude of which must be identified empirically. 1. Questions arising from the theory How do political constraints, accountability, and autonomy relate to each other? One point that deserves emphasis is the relationship between political constraints, political accountability, and political autonomy.
Danger! and Other Stories by Arthur Conan Doyle